Lesson 04

Writing if-then lines

A level, a trigger, an action, a stop and a target. Always in pairs.

In one line"Bullish above 21,040" is an opinion. A plan says what price has to do there, what you do, where you're wrong and where you're going.

The five parts of a line

Level. One of the prices on your map. Never a new one you found at 9:40.
Trigger. What price has to do at the level: accept (build closes and time beyond it) or reject (probe through it and come back). Touching it is not a trigger.
Action. What you do when the trigger fires: enter now, enter on the first pullback, or stand aside.
Wrong. The price that proves the idea wrong. It comes from the structure (back through the level, beyond the probe), not from how much you feel like losing.
Target. The next level on the map. The distance from entry to target, against the distance to wrong, is the room (Lesson 05).

Every level gets two lines

A level can break and hold, or break and fail. If your card only has the first, the second one catches you long at the top. So every level on the map gets a pair: accept and reject, written together.

Plan card · example only, simulated prices

ScriptOpens inside the overnight range, just under its high. Base case: a test of the overnight high.

Ifprice breaks the overnight high (21,040) and two 5-minute bars close above it

Thenbuy the first pullback that holds 21,040 · wrong on a close back below 21,030 · target yesterday's high, 21,095

Ifprice trades above 21,040 and closes back below it inside two bars

Thenthe break failed: sell a retest from below · wrong above the probe's high · target the overnight midpoint

Neitherprice stalls between the levels: no trade, wait for one of the two lines

The accept line plays. Price closes above the overnight high, the first pullback holds it, and the move runs to the next level on the map. Illustration from simulated prices, not a real session.

Same level, same morning, the other line. The probe above can't hold, and the trader with only a bullish line on the card is long at the top. Illustration from simulated prices, not a real session.

Lines that sound like plans but aren't

Vague	Written
"Bullish above the overnight high"	"If two 5-minute closes hold above the overnight high, buy the first pullback to it. Wrong on a close back below. Target yesterday's high."
"Watch VAL for a bounce"	"If price probes below VAL and closes back inside within two bars, buy. Wrong below the probe's low. Target the POC."
"Careful, it's a news day"	"No new position from 9:58 to 10:02 (data at 10:00). Lines resume after."

The numbers in these examples (two bars, 5-minute closes) are a starting format, not a rule. Pick your own, write them down, and keep them the same for twenty sessions so the results mean something.

Key terms

TriggerWhat price must do at a level before you act.

Acceptance lineThe script for a level that breaks and holds.

Rejection lineThe script for a level that breaks and fails.

InvalidationThe price that proves the idea wrong, from structure.

Try it

Take tomorrow's two nearest levels and write both lines for each, four in all, in the format of the card above. After the close, mark which line fired, and whether price did what the line said next.

AXIS Desk · The Pre-Market Plan · free. Education only, not trade advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss; past patterns do not guarantee future results.